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Iraq: the lies surge
Gabriel Carlyle
Much has been made in recent
weeks of the apparent success of
the US "surge" Â the massive
increase in US troops deployed to
Iraq.
In fact, the picture is less rosy
when we look closely.
In a report published on 5
November, former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman observed
that the recent decline in the worst
kinds of violence in Iraq was due to
a combination of factors, "the most
important of which had little to do
with the `surge' in US troops".
"Much of the positive trend
came from a largely spontaneous
tribal uprising against Al Qa'ida in
Iraq in Anbar, and from pockets of
similar Iraqi action against AQI and
extremists in other areas," Cordesman noted.
He added that: "the levels of violence are still high and most are
still at the same levels as in the
spring of 2006".
The US escalation has not halted the pace of Iraqi displacements.
It has "often created a patchwork
of Arab Shi'ite versus Arab Sunni
divisions", that "has laid the
ground for further struggles once
the US is gone."
Cordesman points out that the
Sunni militias that are currently
fighting al Qa'eda, allowing the US
Marine Corps to reduce its presence in Anbar province to minimum levels, "are likely to turn on
the central government and the
Shi'ites" once they have defeated
their Sunni rivals.
A concerned citizen
The Guardian's Ghaith Abdul-Ahad recently interviewed the
commander of a US-sponsored
militia in Baghdad. While the
Americans call their new allies
"Concerned Citizens", Abu Abed,
a member of the insurgent Islamic
Army, is actually a Sunni warlord
paid by the US to fight al Qa'eda
in Iraq.
Abu Amed, a former intelligence
officer, told the Guardian: "After
we finish with al-Qaida here, we
will turn toward our main enemy,
the Shia militias."
The current decline in violence
appears to be a lull before the
next storm.
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