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Afghans demand talks with Taliban; UK faces dilemma:
Negotiate or escalate?
Gabriel Carlyle
While a new poll in Afghanistan
shows overwhelming support
for negotiations with the Taliban, and a majority favouring a
coalition government including
the Taliban, future British strategy in the country is hard to
judge.
Though UK officials have
reportedly concluded that the Taliban are "too deep-rooted to be
eradicated by military means",
they are still preparing to escalate
the war next spring.
Afghans demand talks
In a cross-country poll of 1,578
Afghans, conducted in mid-September but released on 18 October, Canada's biggest polling
agency Environics found that 74%
supported the idea of negotiations
between the Afghan government
and the Taliban.
54% also supported the idea of
a coalition government between
the Taliban and Western-backed
president Hamid Karzai.
52% agreed that all foreign
troops should withdraw within five
years (25% preferred one year).
Taliban demands
On 15 October, the Guardian
reported: "Senior Taliban commanders in Helmand province" Â
including a key aide to Taliban
leader Mullah Omar  had sent a
list of demands to the Afghan
government "as part of tentative
back-channel talks to bring a
peaceful end to the conflict."
Their demands included "control of 10 southern provinces, a
timetable for withdrawal of foreign
troops, and the release of all Taliban prisoners within six months."
Involve the Taliban?
In the face of these Afghan reali-
ties, there are indications of a
more realistic British approach.
British Defence Secretary Des
Browne said at the end of September: "at some stage, the Taliban will need to be involved in the peace process because they are not going away".
General Richard Dannatt, head
of the British army, said at the
same time: "the great majority [of
militants are] fighting with the Taliban for financial, social and tribal
reasons... one day we will need to
deal with and reconcile the majority of these people".
Split the Taliban?
At the same time, the government
is reported to be supporting "an
ambitious Afghan strategy" to split
the Taliban by securing the defection of some of its senior members and their followers.
Crush the Taliban?
Despite all this, in 2008, Britain is
to deploy its biggest contingent of
paratroopers and special forces
since WWII "in a bid to crush the
Taliban," according to the Sunday
Times.
The entire Parachute Regiment
 2,000 troops  will be deployed,
alongside the Eurofighter/Typhoon,
equipped with new missiles for a
ground attack role, and, for the first
time, UK special forces  whose
numbers are set to treble  will
focus solely on southern Helmand.
According to a 16 September
Sunday Times report, such forces
have killed thousands of people in
Iraq since the 2003 invasion.
Uncertainties remain about the
exact direction of British policy,
but Paul Rogers issues a warning.
The professor of peace studies
at Bradford University, observes:
"Des Browne may talk of negotiations, but the military escalation
suggests otherwise.
"It could even be that
Afghanistan will begin to match
Iraq in 2008 as a focal-point for
George W Bush's war on terror."
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