What comes after Chechnya?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, civilians have been the main victims of the December-January war between the Russian government and the rebel Caucasian republic of Chechnya. While it appears certain that Russian rule will be re-imposed over Grozny, it is also feared that the war will continue indefinitely in the south of the republic, unless there is a fundamental shift in political direction in Moscow. On this page, CHRIS HUNTER reports on how opposition groups and human rights movements have responded, while on page 4 he speaks to soldiers who risk death by refusing to go back to Chechnya.

Chechnya first declared independence in November 1990 at a congress of Chechen peoples. In August 1991 the Chechens were preparing to sign the Union treaty along with the Ukrainians, the Georgians, and others. However, USSR President Gorbachev and Russian president Yeltsin, who both came to accept the disintegration of the Soviet Union, would not allow the sovereignty of any republic within Russia, fearing the breakup of the Russian empire itself.

In 1991 general Jokhar Dudaev was elected president of Chechnya. Dudaev's candidacy was supported by Boris Yeltsin and Roman Khasbulatov. According to Salman Vasanaev, the Russian central government planned Dudaev's appointment to be temporary, for about a year, with the main purpose of wiping out Chechen claims to sovereignty. Then however, Russian troops were placed in Chechnya and increased local support for Dudaev, former general of the Russian Strategic Airforce, meant that his position became permanent. This, said Vasanaev, wrecked Khasbulatov's plans for his own cousin to replace Dudaev as Chechen president.

>>> The soverignty taboo

Vasanaev said that Russian government officials constantly use language such as "Dudaev's regime" and "the reconstruction of Chechnya", always avoiding talk of "the sovereignty of Chechnya". The sovereignty of Chechnya is a theme which Western governments and some NGOs approach cautiously, referring to former-Yugoslavia as an example of how the creation of new sovereign states can lead to further conflict.

This controversial issue must be discussed constructively if a long guerilla war is to be avoided. No other nation within the former Soviet Union has expressed and demonstrated their desire for independence so consistently and vehemently as Chechnya. A new referendum on Chechnya's status may be helpful if conducted with the participation of international observers.

At the central Moscow demonstration against the war in Chechnya Russian Deputies, representatives from the Russian human rights group "Memorial," the Committee of Soldier's Mothers, and Vasanaev gave speeches condemning Russia's leadership and calling for an immediate end to the war. Russian Deputy and Orthodox priest Father Gleb Yakunin spoke of pleas made to Yeltsin to stop the war for Orthodox Christmas (7 January). Yeltsin replied, however, that it was still too early for that and in fact the worst battles took place on New Year's day and Orthodox Christmas Day.

Father Yakunin said "The Anti-Christ whom the bible says will come at the end of the world will first appear just and socially sympathetic to everybody's needs. He will then turn 180 degrees and commit atrocities even on his own people. Yeltsin has done the same.

"Most of the Chechens have fled to the hills. Now Russians are killing Russians. Our generals should be tried in court."

>>> Fiddling the casualty figures

Russian military leaders threaten criminal procedures against "deserters" on national broadcasts every day. Any member of the army missing for more than three days is considered a deserter and charged under criminal law.

Moreover, many of the Russian soldiers killed in Chechnya have been officially classified as deserters. In this way the army frees itself of responsibility for their deaths and avoids paying pensions to the families of the deceased.

The official death toll of Russian soldiers stands at 500 as of 16 January. However the morgue at Mozdok in North Ossetia, which is only one of the several handling the bodies of young men from the Russian army, reports that 800 have passed through it since the war began 11 December. The death toll of Chechen fighters and civilians is estimated at between 20,000 and 30,000 people. Many corpses of Russian soldiers are scattered on "Freedom Square" in front of the presidential palace in Grozny. They have been there since the storm of 31 December.

>>> A man who has caused genocide against his own people

Over two-thirds of the Russian people are against the war in Chechnya and support a peaceful settlement. All factions of the Duma, except Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party, have also called for an end to the fighting. Zurganov, head of the Russian Communist Party, told a group of us that out of 100 young communists who fought for the Russian army in Grozny, ten are still alive. "Of course I am for peace", he said.

Yeltsin himself has called twice for the cessation of the Russian forces' attack on Grozny, but with no result. Many doubt whether these calls were genuine. Sergei Yushenkov, head of the Duma Defense Committee, and others have called for the resignations of Defense Minister Pavel Grachev and leading generals.

18 January: Yeltsin insisted on the evening news program "Vremiya" that he will not have any talks with Dudaev, "a man who has caused genocide to be committed against his own people."

abridged from Peace Media Service reports